Report Predicts Wii U Sales

The Wii U hasn't even launched yet, but research firm IHS Screen Digest thinks it knows how well the console will sell in its first four years. According to its report published today, the Wii U will sell 3.5 million units between November 18 and the end of December. That 12 percent more than the original Wii sold during a similar sales period in 2006.

Said the report:

“Pent-up demand from Nintendo evangelists, many of which were introduced to the console market through the success of the Wii, is predicted to drive this explosive start."

That's the good news for Nintendo. The not so good news is that after the fast start, sales will slow down, reaching about 53.2 million units in the first four years after release. That's roughly 70% of the 75.9 million Wii units sold in the first four years after its release.

Said Piers Harding-Rolls, senior principal analyst and head of games at IHS:

“This time around, Wii U’s pure innovation, coupled with a limited volume of high-quality Nintendo software, will not be enough to drive the ongoing sales momentum we witnessed with the Wii console, especially at a higher price point. Long-term success depends on ongoing consumer engagement delivered through the constant release of high-quality content from both first and third parties, a competitive non-games entertainment proposition and a sound digital and online strategy to go along with such innovation. Nintendo is still some way short of delivering a comprehensive engagement-led value proposition at the launch of the Wii U."

If the report is accurate, sales for Wii U will not reach the stratospheric level the Wii achieved in its first four years, but the console might just have longer legs. Over the last 18 months, Nintendo stopped supporting the Wii, and sales have suffered. Perhaps the Wii U will be better supported for a longer amount of time, earning its sales in a less spectacular but more evenly-distributed way.